The eleven cities races
As I mentioned the race was held 14 times in the 20th century. In the table below we see that the circumstances with respect to temperature, ice and wind varied a lot. The number of participants also changed considerably over time but what is most remarkable is that the winning time was varying so much. While there are some winning times over 11 hours there are also recent ones below 7 hours. This is a difference of 4 hours, a surprising phenomenon. On the basis of the data presented in the table I will try to give an indication of the reasons for the differences in the winning time.
It will be clear that the weather and ice conditions have played an important role. For example we can see that all times over 11 hours were realized in a tour with very bad ice and/or wind. So this is certainly an important factor. The two most difficult races were in 1940 and in 1963. In both cases the ice was very bad and there was a strong wind from North East which means that one has to skate the last 100 km against this strong wind. What was even worse was that in both cases the wind was blowing the snow over the ice so that at some places there were dunes of snow and even parts where you could not distinguish the land from the canal anymore.
The authorities have done their utmost best to prevent deathly accidents in 1963 like there were in 1940. There were however many people who needed medical treatment for broken legs and arms, serious wounds and frozen fingers arms, legs and eyes. I will report about this when I speak of the tour.
The authorities have done their utmost best to prevent deathly accidents in 1963 like there were in 1940. There were however many people who needed medical treatment for broken legs and arms, serious wounds and frozen fingers arms, legs and eyes. I will report about this when I speak of the tour.
We can also see in the table, if we ignore the races under extreme conditions where the winning time was over 11 hours, that there is a very steady reduction in the winning time through the century. This can indicate an effect of improvement in skating equipment and clothes but also of better training and more knowledge about the skating technique. These factors cannot be separated here but at least I can indicate how much improvement is obtained over the years independent of the weather and ice conditions. Using a simple formula I have found a nearly perfect description of the data over this period and a bit beyond it. The formula is as follows:
Winning time(year) = 604 minutes – 2.8 minutes x (year- 1912) + 19.3 minutes x ( index(year))
This formula suggests for example that we would expect for 1963 a winning time of 10 hours and 35 minutes because
the winning time (1963)= 604 minutes - 2.8 minutes x (1963-1912) + 19.3 minutes x (index(1963)
or
the winning time (1963) = 604 minutes - 2.8 minutes x 51 + 19.3 minutes x 9 = 635 minutes= 10 hours and 35 minutes
This prediction is rather close to the real winning time which was 10 hours and 59 minutes
The model suggests that each year the winning time would be reduced by 2.8 minutes under equal conditions with respect to ice and wind. Over 85 years the reduction in time needed by the winner would be close to 4 hours (2.8 minutes x 85=3.hours and 54 minutes)
The model also says that due to the combination of the strength of the wind and the bad quality of the ice the winning time will increase maximally about 3 hours (19.3 minutes x 9= 2 hours and 54 minutes ) . Note that the temperature turned out not to play a role.
This analysis shows that a large effect comes from the development in skating through time which is not surprising as we will illustrate in the next sections presenting in more detail the winner of the elfstedentocht of 1940 and 1941 , Auke Adema and the winner of 1985 and 1986 , Evert van Benthem. Comparing them you can clearly see how much progress in skating, training, facilities and equipment was made over these years.
If my analysis is correct I should also be able to predict the winning time of the "Elfstedentocht a limited time later for example in 2007. My model would suggest that at that time under the same condition as in 1997 the winning time would have been 5 hours and 57 minutes,The problem is that since 1997 there has not been an "Elfstedentocht". However there were alternative "Elfstedentochten" of 200 km in the Weissensee in Austria.This predicted time is indeed quite close to the time obtained in the "alternative eleven cities tours" at the Weissensee in 2006 and 2008, respectively 5.37 and 5.33 hours. There was no 200km tour in 2007. Note that at the Weissensee the winning time could be a bit lower because the skaters don´t have to walk in the snow to get to a control post or to pass through a village..
We have seen that at the start of the official “Elfstedentocht” the winner was skating with a speed below 20km per hour. Recently the people are able to skate 200km with an average speed of close to 40km per hour. This is an incredible increase in speed which requires some further illustration
Winning time(year) = 604 minutes – 2.8 minutes x (year- 1912) + 19.3 minutes x ( index(year))
This formula suggests for example that we would expect for 1963 a winning time of 10 hours and 35 minutes because
the winning time (1963)= 604 minutes - 2.8 minutes x (1963-1912) + 19.3 minutes x (index(1963)
or
the winning time (1963) = 604 minutes - 2.8 minutes x 51 + 19.3 minutes x 9 = 635 minutes= 10 hours and 35 minutes
This prediction is rather close to the real winning time which was 10 hours and 59 minutes
The model suggests that each year the winning time would be reduced by 2.8 minutes under equal conditions with respect to ice and wind. Over 85 years the reduction in time needed by the winner would be close to 4 hours (2.8 minutes x 85=3.hours and 54 minutes)
The model also says that due to the combination of the strength of the wind and the bad quality of the ice the winning time will increase maximally about 3 hours (19.3 minutes x 9= 2 hours and 54 minutes ) . Note that the temperature turned out not to play a role.
This analysis shows that a large effect comes from the development in skating through time which is not surprising as we will illustrate in the next sections presenting in more detail the winner of the elfstedentocht of 1940 and 1941 , Auke Adema and the winner of 1985 and 1986 , Evert van Benthem. Comparing them you can clearly see how much progress in skating, training, facilities and equipment was made over these years.
If my analysis is correct I should also be able to predict the winning time of the "Elfstedentocht a limited time later for example in 2007. My model would suggest that at that time under the same condition as in 1997 the winning time would have been 5 hours and 57 minutes,The problem is that since 1997 there has not been an "Elfstedentocht". However there were alternative "Elfstedentochten" of 200 km in the Weissensee in Austria.This predicted time is indeed quite close to the time obtained in the "alternative eleven cities tours" at the Weissensee in 2006 and 2008, respectively 5.37 and 5.33 hours. There was no 200km tour in 2007. Note that at the Weissensee the winning time could be a bit lower because the skaters don´t have to walk in the snow to get to a control post or to pass through a village..
We have seen that at the start of the official “Elfstedentocht” the winner was skating with a speed below 20km per hour. Recently the people are able to skate 200km with an average speed of close to 40km per hour. This is an incredible increase in speed which requires some further illustration